Daily Analyses

11.08.2020

Fundamentals

Europe

News feeds for Europe's biggest economies were at the forefront on the previous trading day. Italy's Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri argued that Italy's economy could grow by close to 15 percent, showing a strong recovery in the third quarter. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has announced that he has been selected by members of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) as a candidate for prime minister for next year's elections. Survey data for July was dominated by expectations that restrictions would continue for another 8.5 months in public life due to Covid-19 at German firms, the Ifo, the Munich-based Economics Research Institute, said in a statement. German media also reported that Germany, France and Italy had launched initiatives at the European Union level to impose sanctions against firms and individuals who breached the arms embargo on Libya. In addition, a statement from the European Commission said that full protection of the existing rights and freedoms of Hong Kong citizens is the main part of the one-country two-system principle. On the macroeconomic calendar, the eurozone's index of investor confidence in August was minus 13.4 points, meeting market expectations of minus 15.1 points, according to Sentix data from the Frankfurt-based Market Research Institute.

US

Remarks on the new stimulus package that President Donald Trump has taken on temporary measures by signing a series of presidential decrees amid a failure to reach agreement between the White House and Democrats were at significant in the US. Donald Trump argued that the decrees in question would make Democrats more inclined to strike a deal. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the decrees enacted by President Trump ‘unconstitutional’ and an ‘illusion’. On the new coronavirus stimulus package, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, "We shall legislate the issues we agreed on. We have to do this now for the American people." ‘If we can get a fair deal with Democrats, we'll do it this week," Mnuchin said, noting that there is space for agreement in the Covid-19 aid talks. On the other side, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said additional fiscal policy measures were extremely important to support the economy, which is struggling with the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, White House National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien claimed that Chinese government-linked hackers aimed to infiltrate US election infrastructure ahead of the 2020 presidential election, saying: ‘they want to see Trump lose. There will be heavy consequences for every country that tries to interfere in our free and fair elections." In the macroeconomic calendar, job opportunities and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) in the United States rose to 5.40 million from 5.89 million in June, according to Labor Department data.

Britain

In Britain, where no macroeconomic data flow was recorded that could affect Sterling pricing, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's statements were important. Johnson expressed hope that local measures to combat the Coronavirus outbreak would be successful and, despite opposition responses, expressed a desire to open schools on September as part of loosening coronavirus measures. Johnson also testified that they would not hesitate to restart quarantine enforcement for those returning from travel in case of need. It was also important for the government to decide at the weekend whether to reopen the remaining sectors of the economy, a spokesman for the Prime Minister's office said.

Asia & Turkey

In Asia, news from China, the world's second-largest economy, was closely followed by the markets. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said U.S. sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials seriously violate international law and that the Beijing Administration, in retaliation, would impose similar sanctions on 11 American officials. Yi Gang, Chairman of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said the Bank was committed to encouraging Yuan internalization and supporting the opening up of the financial sector. Gang said that yuan is on the way to become a reserve currency in cross-border transactions. He stated that he will further steer the flexible monetary policy to support targeted areas and plans to lift foreign shareholding limits in areas such as securities. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey's economy has been adversely affected in the short term by the outbreak, but that economic activity has recovered rapidly thanks to the measures taken and the steps taken to improve the economy's resilience. On the other hand, Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez announced that Turkey would continue to search for hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean and Black Sea for energy independence. The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) announced that an update was made to the active ratio of banks within the framework of limiting liquidity opportunities in Turkey. In addition, according to TurkStat data, unemployment rate in May was 12.9 percent with a 0.1 percentage point increase, while non-agricultural unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 15.2 percent.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sDownload Image

MSCI ETF indices are used for measuring the performance of a stock market located within a certain region. Prior to take any actions regarding the relevant region, stock market investment funds follow up the ETF yields and risk measurement.

10Y Bond Yields

10Ybondyields
10Y Bond YieldsDownload Image

Yields of the government bonds are determined by trading in a second market. High yields mean that the government will pay off high interest rates. On the other hand, low yields mean that the government will pay off lower interest rates.


US Index

USIndex

Technically speaking, the dollar index, which had strong support at 92.50 in its retreats in the intermediate decelerating channel, recovered from this level and ended the minor trend. If the index, which is looking to recover its losses with upward movements, can exceed 93.80 resistance on the new trading day, it can also raise 94.10 and 94.50 resistance. In case of weakening the index's desire to rise, the easing towards 93.20 and 92.90 supports can be observed.

Support93.2092.9092.50
Resistance93.8094.1094.50

Parities

EURUSD

The pair's bullish move in favour of the Euro appears to have ended the minor price channel by retreating with the profit realizations it has faced. If the support of 1.1710 can be broken below, the fibonacci 100 percent expansion line 1.1680 level can be monitored. 1.1770 and 1.1800 resistances can be followed if the pair wishes to recover.

Support1.17101.16801.1650
Resistance1.17701.18001.1830

USDTRY

It appears that the dollar/TL exchange rate, which is testing its all-time peak, is headed to protect its earnings by ending its aggressively rising and lowering wedge formation. As long as the price release does not take place below the minor trend we base in terms of the exchange rate to continue with buyers, the above 7.3800 and then 7.4400 and 7.5000 resistors may become the target position. If the exchange rate does not maintain its gains, if the transition down to the minor trend is observed, transactions in favor of TL may accelerate towards the support of 7.2800 and 7.2200.

Support7.28007.22007.1600
Resistance7.38007.44007.5000

GBPUSD

The pair, which has faced a strong threshold at the upper limit line of the Intermediate rising channel in favour of Sterling, appears to have retreated decisively. If the pair, which made their decline in the minor price channel, can recover on the new trading day and exceed 1.3120 resistance above 1.3160, it may be headed to break the strong threshold pointed by 1.3200 resistance over 1.3160. Possible downward movements of the pair can be followed by 1.3040 and 1.3000 supports.

Support1.30401.30001.2960
Resistance1.31201.31601.3200

USDJPY

The dollar/yen parity, which is balanced by settling on the short-term 50-period simple moving average, appears to be holding on from this region and heading its course in the minor upward channel. If the pair that can end the formation of the descending channel with upward movements can break the upper boundary line of the channel marked by the 106.30 resistance in a printed form, it can also bring up the 106.50 and 106.80 resistors. In the possible downward loosening of the pair, the simple moving average of 50 periods below the support of 105.80 can be viewed as a strong support of 105.60.

Support105.80105.60105.30
Resistance106.30106.50106.80

Commodities

XAUUSD

Technically speaking, the yellow metal's all-time peak of 2075 level with the realizations of the snow experienced by the withdrawal of fibonacci 50.0 per cent Fan line appears to have broken. As long as persistence is maintained below the 50.0 per cent fan line, which is the decisive position in the maintenance of short-term pricing direction of the commodity, the declines may continue towards the 1996 and 1984 supports followed by 2008. 2030 and 2042 resistors may be brought on the agenda through buying-way transactions if the commodity is able to switch over the 50.0 per cent fan line with a possible recovery move.

Support200819961984
Resistance203020422054

USOIL

Crude oil, which has encountered trendsetter resistance in its attempts to recover, appears to be loosening modestly. In the second trading day of the week, the commodity may be supported by the rising main trend, and if the level of 43.80, which indicates trendsetter resistance above 43.10 resistance, can be exceeded, the 44.50 resistance may also be on the agenda. In case of volume-free upstream trials in commodities, loosening may occur towards 41.70 and 41.00 supports.

Support41.7041.0040.30
Resistance43.1043.8044.50

XAGUSD

The precious metal appears to be moving towards value gains with moderate pricing, settling on a minor upward trend. If the commodity can exceed 29.24 resistance above by moving positive pricing behavior to the new trading day, it can test 29.50 then 29.76 resistance. The possible price swings of the commodity below the minor trend can be followed by support of 28.72 and 28.46.

Support28.7228.4628.20
Resistance29.2429.5029.76

Indices

DAX30

The DAX Index, which has completed its retracements by testing the rising trend, has recovered with the responses it received from this region. The index ending the minor price channel with these responses can also target 13 120 resistance if it can exceed 13 000 resistance, which is psychological level above 12 880 resistance. 12 680 and 12 560 supports can be followed in the downward easing that can be observed in the index in case the responses lose volume.

Support12 68012 56012 440
Resistance12 88013 00013 120

SP500

SP500 index, which continues its upward movements with increasing relative volatility, appears to be using the upper boundary line of the Intermediate rising channel as strong resistance. If the index permanently breaks the upper limit line with upwards transactions, it will possibly test 3 392 followed by 3 416 and 3 440 resistances. 3 344 and 3 320 supports can be monitored for possible withdrawal of the index due to increased volatility.

Support3 3443 3203 296
Resistance3 3923 4163 440

Cryptos

BTCUSD

The cryptocurrency, which has met with strong resistance at the upper boundary line of the correction channel, appears to be making tape movement by building pressure in this region. Bitcoin, which we expect to continue its upward trend pricing after short-term balancing in the band, may follow 12 200 and 12 400 resistors if it can break that strong resistance level of 12 000 with permanent closures. If the pressure of the cryptocurrency in the band zone is weakened, the value losses towards the 11 600 and 11 400 supports can be observed.

Support11 60011 40011 200
Resistance12 00012 20012 400

Economic Calendar

CountryTime (GMT)Action
uk 08:30 Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)
uk 08:30 Claimant Count Change (Jul)
uk 08:30 Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jun)
uk 08:30 Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Germany 09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug)
Germany 09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
eu 09:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
usa 12:00 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
usa 12:30 Core PPI (MoM) (Jul)
usa 12:30 PPI (MoM) (Jul)
uk bulletin.table.time. NIESR GDP Estimate
usa 16:00 FOMC Member Daly Speaks
usa 20:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Subscribe to our newsletter
and get the latest news

Download MetaTrader